And now you must go into the forest and cut down the largest tree with ... a herring!

Who will win the National League Central?

The Cardinals have 50 games left and they are presently 4 games behind the Cubs for 1st place.

Of those 50 games:
Home games = 25
Away games = 25

Games against teams that are .500 or better = 20
Games against teams that are sub .500 = 30

Home games vs. .500+ = 10
Home games vs. sub .500 = 15

Away games vs. .500+ = 10
Away games vs. sub .500 = 15

Cardinals Home record = 31-25
Cardinals Away record = 31-25

If the Cardinals kept those winning percentages ...
Remaining home games = 14-11
Remaining away games = 14-11
Going 28-22 in their last 52 games,
finishing 90-76.
(I think they will need at least 93 to win the division.)


The Cubs remaining 52 games:
Home games = 27
Away games = 25

Games against teams that are .500 or better = 28
Games against teams that are sub .500 = 24

Home games vs. .500+ = 15
Home games vs. sub .500 = 12

Away games vs. .500+ = 13
Away games vs. sub .500 = 12

Cubs Home record = 39-15
Cubs Away record = 26-30

If the Cubs kept those winning percentages ...
Remaining home games = 19-8
Remaining away games = 11-14
Going 30-22 in their last 52 games,
finishing 95-67. (5 games ahead)


The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals are 5-5. That will not do.

The Cardinals have 9 games left with the Cubs (6 away, 3 home). The percentages would say the Cardinals go 4-5 in those games, thereby losing a game in the standings. I contend that the Cardinals must go 6-3 (thereby gaining 3 games) to have a chance to win the division.

That will not be easy, even if the schedule slightly favors the Cardinals. In fact, it might be easier to cut down the largest tree in the forest with ... a herring.